Lionstar wrote:We've already asked for this numerous times, maybe with the new CM there will be some response.
I had some really long streaks with no BP as well but 30 magic chests seems like little too far stretched, just saying. = )
VeNoM0619 wrote:Might want to post this suggestion in the sticky request for suggestions.
Also, as stated in the blueprint drop rate thread, RNG isn't really random. Just figure out where the current state is, and run from there.
Here's the tips I can share:
- Never open less than 10 chests at a time (20 is better if you choose to ignore other rules), I've never opened more than 15 in a row with nothing. Given the odds are about 5-20%... you should never plan on going "empty handed". Rolling one at a time isn't great either. You don't go to casinos and play a game once and give up, expecting to win it big.
- Always stop opening after getting a bp (take a 2-3 minute break if you insist on streaks). 3 Separate occasions I've gotten 3 in a row back to back taking breaks in between.
- Open bags to check the server's current RNG internal state (I open purple bags) About 5-10 is good enough to tell. If you get a bunch of blues/artifacts, don't open chests. If you get flawless, sure go for it. Epics/Legendaries, you better open some chests.
- If you are opening a lot of chests back to back, and it takes you well over 7-8 chests to get a bp (talking magic+), then give it an hour, and repeat. It does appear the ebb and flows are about 1-2 hours apart...Expect your luck to turn given that timeframe or less
Feel free to call it superstition and dismiss this completely... I don't care, but good "luck".
Wraith wrote:First, unless you know the RNG algorithm, there is nothing suggesting that some rolls (i.e. one roll = opening one chest) have bigger odds than others to yield a BP. As far as we know the odds are the same every time.
Wraith wrote:If there were brackets of times (say, periods of 5 minutes) when the server is more likely to drop BPs, or if the rolls were predictable in any other way, then that would mean the RNG algorithm is very badly designed.
Wraith wrote:I don't know what algorithm Shop Heroes uses, but I doubt it's an algorithm that Cloudcade wrote themselves because software devs rarely write their own. Without getting too technical, developers usually use a default RNG algorithm that come with the coding library they use, and these algorithms are carefully designed by experienced professionals to give every number an equal chance of dropping and to ensure the results can't be predicted by humans.
Wraith wrote:Second, some of your tips contradict each other. For example, you say there are times when the server is more likely to drop BPs and at the same time you advise people to stop opening chests after getting a BP. But if there really were better periods of time than others to open chests, then logic would say that if you win a BP, it's more likely the server is on a good time and you should keep opening chests.
Wraith wrote:Third, there's a lot of psychology research on superstition (or more precisely: there's research on why people are superstitious):
Avoiding streaks as you advise is called the gambler's fallacy: it's the mistaken belief that you can't get the same result multiple times in a row. An example is roulette players in a casino who see the ball land 10 times on black in a row, and who then assume the the next time it MUST land on red so they go all in. Nope, the odds of red and black (or in our case: the odds of getting another BP) are still the same.
Wraith wrote:There's no evidence that the RNG algorithm is humanly predictable
Wraith wrote:With that said, if you really wanted to prove your ideas, you could open a few hundred chests while following your tips, and then open an identical number of chests at random times. It would take time, but it's the only way to prove you're correct about what you say.
VeNoM0619 wrote:MT https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mersenne_Twister
Period lengths of MT are known to have dead streaks, and get caught in them.
True, some could be superstition there, this is just my personal experience getting 3 in a row, 3 separate times. It may not even matter here, my best theory is that in blackjack, if you have 52 cards, you pull a King, what are the odds you pull another king on that next card? When you wait until the deck is reshuffled (other players rolling, since the assumption the internal state is server side), are those odds higher? Feel free to ignore that if you wish, and let me know.
Except all PRNG actually IS predictable. It's called pseudo for a reason, and computers are logical - NO randomness. If you give it 1+1, you are always getting the same result. Which is why all devs are told to seed by time() to help it "look more random" when opening an app.
If you know the internal state, you can figure out what's next in any RNG. MT only has 1 stream of numbers as well, so you just figure out where that pointer for the internal state is. https://jazzy.id.au/2010/09/22/cracking_random_number_generators_part_3.html You only need 624 numbers from it to determine the internal state.
The only reason it is not usually predictable in games, is because its server side. However, for client side RNG: there are people who write programs to look for the internal state to determine what the next rng will be for their next "moves".
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